Examples

Questions, decomposed.

These are product anatomies, not current recommendations or live forecasts. They show how different decision questions are structured before evidence and probability estimates are produced.

Clearly labeledNo example is presented as live client data.
Question-specificEach structure follows the decision being made.
Mechanism-firstThe map explains why each check belongs.
01 / Example anatomies

The same forecasting discipline, shaped around different questions.

A portfolio ranking, company thesis, policy exposure, and strategic scenario require different source plans and forecast checks. The workspace preserves that distinction.

Illustrative anatomy · Portfolio exposure

Which holdings are most vulnerable if AI infrastructure spending slows?

A portfolio question becomes a candidate screen, driver map, company-level forecast checks, and a ranked downside read.

  • Scope: Portfolio holdings + relevant peers
  • Drivers: Demand, concentration, backlog, margins
  • Forecasts: Capex, guidance, and margin events
  • Output: Ranked exposure map + decision brief
Illustrative anatomy · Company thesis

What would need to happen for a GLP-1 exposure to become a bear case?

The workspace defines the bear case, identifies the mechanisms behind it, and turns each mechanism into a forecastable check.

  • Scope: Holdings, competitors, and horizon
  • Drivers: Share, pricing, payer access, safety
  • Forecasts: Clinical, regulatory, and commercial events
  • Output: Bear triggers + evidence-ranked memo
Illustrative anatomy · Policy risk

Which defense contractors are most exposed to a shift in NATO procurement?

Policy uncertainty is translated into procurement checks, company exposure mapping, and explicit watch conditions.

  • Scope: US and European defense universe
  • Drivers: Budget mix, sourcing, bottlenecks
  • Forecasts: Policy, orders, and backlog events
  • Output: Ranked exposure + policy watchpoints
01 / Scope

Global candidate discovery

02 / Drivers

Revenue, margin, recognition gap

03 / Forecasts

Entity-specific growth mechanisms

04 / Output

Opportunity map + evidence receipts

02 / Real output types

The product produces working research artifacts.

These output formats are implemented in Cenva today. Public examples are published only after their data, status, and permissions have been reviewed.

A

Executive forecast memo

A decision question, current read, evidence-ranked signals, caveats, watch conditions, and source appendix.

B

Company brief

Thesis, beliefs, evidence, thesis breakers, scenario context, questions, signals, and sources.

C

Question briefing

One resolvable question with probability, reasoning, drivers, uncertainty, triggers, and evidence.

D

Question set

A broad source or theme translated into a coherent set of explicit forecast questions.

E

Evidence appendix

Representative public records and source links used to ground the workspace snapshot.

F

HTML and PDF export

A client-facing briefing with internal pipeline language and identifiers removed.

Why there are no live probabilities on this page

Cenva is integrating a replacement forecasting core. During that transition, marketing examples are static and explicitly labeled rather than presenting stale data as current.

View the prior record

Your question will have its own shape.

Share the decision and context. We will outline the universe, drivers, and forecast checks it requires.